Application of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility assessment in Sheet No. 254 “Modigliana”
Scientific-Disciplinary Group
04/GEOS-03 - Physical Geography, Geomorphology And Applied Geology
Description
The exceptional meteorological events that affected Emilia-Romagna in May 2023 triggered an unprecedented hydrogeological crisis, causing thousands of shallow landslides, often representing first-time failures on stable slopes. Within the area of CARG Sheet No. 254 “Modigliana”, these phenomena revealed a high landslide density concentrated in specific lithological settings, a marked spatial heterogeneity, and the limitations of approaches based solely on historical inventories in extreme climate scenarios. The research activity aims to carry out a comparative evaluation of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility assessment, calibrated against the 2023 event. The work includes the preparation of territorial datasets and the event-based landslide inventory, the application of statistical and machine-learning models, the use of physically based slope-stability models, with the objective of supporting land-use planning and landslide risk mitigation.
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Funding body
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - UNIVERSITA' DI BOLOGNA - - DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE BIOLOGICHE, GEOLOGICHE E AMBIENTALI
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